Magnetic cloud prediction model for forecasting space weather relevant properties of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major eruptive events on the Sun that result in ejection of large-scale magnetic clouds (MCs) interplanetary space, consisting plasma with enhanced fields whose direction changes coherently when measured situ. The severity CME-induced geomagnetic perturbations and space weather impacts depends strength field (IMF), as well speed duration passage cloud associated storm. coupling between heliospheric environment Earth’s magnetosphere is strongest IMF persistently southward (i.e. negative B z ) for a prolonged period. Predicting profile such Earth-directed CMEs therefore critical estimating their consequences; this remains an outstanding challenge, however. Aims. Our aim to build upon integrate diverse techniques towards development comprehensive prediction (MCP) model can forecast vectors, Earth-impact time, speed, solar storms. Methods. configuration CME approximated radially expanding force-free cylindrical structure. Combining near-Sun geometrical, magnetic, kinematic properties probabilistic drag-based model, we propose method predicting Earth-arrival propagation vectors MCs during through 1 AU. able predict storm without recourse computationally intensive time-dependent dynamical equations. Results. validated by comparing MCP output observations ten at In our sample, find eight show root mean square (rms) deviation smaller than 0.1 predicted observed profiles, durations seven fall within range. Conclusions. Based success approach, conclude near-Earth based analysis modelling viable endeavour potential applications early-warning systems enabling mitigation strategies.